Mitigate Global Warming: Rapid Action is a Must

This weekly column published between April 2009 - April 2012 in Sri Lanka's 'Daily News' newspaper  addressed core issues regarding sustainability, critically examining the current concepts, thoughts, strategies and actions adopted by us in the context of both the global and local economy.

Please read it in the time context which is 2011. Yet the issues are as real and call for even more urgent action by us all today. 

Last week’s column was an attempt to see what each of us can do effectively, to contribute towards being carbon clean in our day to day living. Each replacement of a incandescent light bulb to a CFL, taking public transport, car pooling or practising austerity, resolving to replace the big wedding tamasha with a simple ceremony for one’s son or daughter, are all effective ways of contributing. The list is long and the options are many. But actual effort on the ground for change is starkly seen to be far from adequate.

 

On the global governmental front the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) led by Indian scientist Dr. Rajendra Pachauri met last week in Antalya, Turkey at its 30^th session. Making his opening remarks what Dr. Pachauri had to say to the rest of the world and to each of us is indeed a revelation.

 

In my column today, key excerpts of his  speech is presented to serve as a reminder to all of us that there is very little time left for us to keep bickering on the validity of the scientific evidence on global warming. The need is for collective and individual action NOW to rethink and readjust our lifestyles. In the light of the scientific evidence, where we live on this planet, the magnitude of the local level issues we face and how big or small we are, deems insignificant. It is indeed an issue of our very own survival in the not so distant future. Our collective voices must be raised and assertive action on all governments, civil society, households and individuals alike.

 

Evidence is clear

 

A large part of the work of the IPCC has still not received adequate attention and precise understanding. Hence, impacts of climate change are still seen as distant and undefined. But science has given us precise answers and robust conclusions.

The IPCC is a unique operational model and mobilizes thousands of the best scientists in the world for its assessment of various aspects of climate change. This work is carried out with complete transparency and objectivity in all the procedures followed and peer reviews carried out at each stage of the process by experts as well as governments; the approval and acceptance of the Summary for Policymakers involves all the governments, which gives them direct participation in the process and a full sense of ownership in the work of the IPCC.

 

No room for inaction

From the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, we now know the serious impacts of climate change, which would accrue as a result of inaction. We also know the nature of their worldwide implications.

Some examples of these impacts are:

- the number of people living in severely stressed river basins would go up from 1.4 to 1.6 billion in 1995 to 4.3 to 6.9 billion in 2050.

- Roughly 20-30% of species assessed are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction as global mean temperatures exceed 2°-3° above pre-industrial levels. We are getting close to that range.

- Abrupt and irreversible change are possible, such as collapse of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets, which can lead to Sea Level Rise of several meters. For Greenland, the temperature threshold for breakdown is estimated to be about 1.1° to 3.8° C above today’s global average temperature. Again we are close to that range too.

- Climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths. Adverse health impacts will be greatest in low income countries.

- Smallholder and subsistence farmers, who are generally dependent on rainfed agriculture, pastoralists and artisan fisherfolk are likely to suffer complex, localized impacts of climate change.

- Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events.

- If current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could decay at very rapid rates. Decline in river flows as a result could affect 500 million people in South Asia and 250 million in China.

 

Poor more vulnerable

The differential nature of climate change impacts and the existence of other stresses leave the poor of the world particularly vulnerable. The ethical aspects of this reality need to be accepted in devising the implementing mitigation actions.

Our collective record of mitigation of GHG emissions has not been very inspiring. Global greenhouse gas emissions have grown, of course, since pre-industrial times, but there has been an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Hence, the record of global action at mitigation has been very weak, even though the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed on in 1992. This record goes against the spirit and intent of the UNFCCC.

 

Many benefits

Large co-benefits of mitigation would include health benefits on account of lower air pollution at the local level, higher energy security, higher yields in agriculture, and greater employment opportunities. The record of those countries that have proactively pursued greater use of renewable energy and pursued major improvements in energy efficiency have been able to increase employment in the economy.

But even the trajectory of stabilisation described by the IPCC leave some serious problems in the nature of impacts of climate change. We would need to consider whether the effort to limit increase in global mean temperature to about 2 degrees C would be adequate because sea level rise due to thermal expansion alone with this trajectory would be between 0.4 to1.4 meters. Add to this the melting of ice bodies, and we would have serious effects of sea level rise on low lying coastal areas and small islands.

”My (Dr. Pachauri’s) plea would be to please listen to and reflect on the voice of science, and please act with determination and a sense of urgency. We in the IPCC do not prescribe any specific action, but action is a must”, he concludes.

   

Useful Web Addresses:

IPCC’s work and reports and the full speeches : www.ipcc.ch/
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: http://unfccc.int

Global Climate Debate – Source for Research News: www.sciencedaily.com
Practical Tips on Conservation to mitigate Climate Change: www.climal.com
Comprehensive exposition on Climate Change issues: www.oneclimate.net
Web resources on ecological good health of the earth: www.ecologicalinternet.org
Action tips on sustainable living:  www.sustainable-environment.info